This letter is to my Republican friends and to supporters of Donald Trump.
Our debate about Donald Trump has too often focused on the latest outrage and not on the fundamental policies and behaviors defining his administration. The United States needed to re-examine policies developed over decades of American global preeminence. We needed to challenge the fundamental assumptions underlying our posture towards China, NATO and others issues. Unfortunately, and with grave consequence for our country, Donald Trump has proven to be a dangerous disruptor rather than a constructive change agent.
As a leader, Trump's most dangerous flaws are narcissism, disdain for factual analysis, and gut-based, impulsive risk taking. While high risk decisions can provide high financial returns, consistently successful entrepreneurs employ careful analysis and thoughtful due diligence to gain insights about market opportunities.
Alarmingly, Trump’s approach to governing is characterized by the same impulsive, wild risk-taking he employed during his business career. Aside from growing a significant real estate branding enterprise built upon his genius for media manipulation, Trump's most notable business success? Benefitting from a loophole in the then-existing tax code to earn an enormous tax loss carryforward by losing other people's money in the Taj Mahal casino bankruptcy.
We have plenty of evidence that Trump's risk-taking historically has not been well-guided. He has repeatedly associated himself with extremely ethically compromised characters in his bankrupted branding initiatives, his political campaign, and his real estate enterprise. It’s highly unlikely Trump’s impulsive decision-making has provided good returns when adjusted for risk. Remove the billion-dollar subsidy Trump gained through his tax loss carryforward and his wealth would be far, far lower than popularly imagined.
Now consider what Trump is risking with his all-chips-on-the-table, do-whatever-is-best-for-Donald-Trump approach to decision-making:
1) A rules-based international trading system in which countries do not arbitrarily create trade wars with other countries
2) The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, which has safeguarded democracy in our country and others
3) A rules-based international political order in which major powers do not invade other countries and seize their territory
4) The global nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime
Trump's cavalier risks with the institutions and norms slowing the spread of nuclear weapons should alarm us all. As my old boss at Los Alamos used to say, the more countries with nuclear guns pointed at each other, the more likely someone is going shoot one off like a drunken cowboy. When that happens, all bets are off. Economic and political chaos are highly likely to follow along with huge population displacements.
During his run up to the Korean negotiation Trump made ill-informed statements that most likely encouraged both South Korea and Japan to begin developing their own nuclear weapons. When Trump called off our joint military exercises with South Korea, in which our military demonstrated its commitment to fighting with South Korea, he broke with Seoul with no prior consultation. Do not believe any military or intelligence analyst who claims the South Korean and Japanese security and intelligence communities did not immediately begin reassessing their nuclear postures following the summit. And Taiwan cannot afford to ignore what it's neighbors are doing.
Trump is an armchair nuclear weapons expert on par with your drunk Uncle Earnie at Thanksgiving hell. He's got the keys to the bus we are all in and is careening down the road out of control.
The Trump Administration has admitted zero substantive progress on North Korean denuclearization. There is no clearly-specified commitment by North Korea to eliminate its weapons or weapons programs. With his European, Mexican, Canadian trade wars, Trump has lost his maximum economic sanctions for good. He has significantly increased the odds of an east Asian nuclear weapons arms race.
And at the same time he is taking stupid risks with North Korea he is acting to dismantle the Iran Nuclear deal with no successor policy defined. People familiar with nuclear weapons proliferation know there are remarkable tools available to provide true checks on Iran's ambitions. Locks that are extraordinarily difficult to break. Sensors which detect minute quantities of radioactive isotopes created during uranium enrichment. Safeguards which dramatically increase the odds of detecting any Iranian cheating. There's no evidence Trump weighed the strengths of the safeguards put in place by the agreement against the risk that Iran would resume unfettered nuclear weapons development in the absence of the safeguards.
Iran will look at Trump's actions towards North Korea and draw one conclusion: it is vital to own nuclear weapons to protect yourself from a militaristic, anti-Muslim, erratic man.
North Korea will look at Trump's weakness and consider the risks of exporting nuclear technology to Iran in exchange for cash.
As President, Trump is not gambling with casinos, steaks, or Chinese-made neckties. He is risking the pillars upon which the United States and the world have enjoyed peace and growing prosperity in the 70 years following the horrors of two World Wars. Wise people built these pillars as safeguards against human barbarism. Smart people have studied the logic and game theory of nuclear weapons proliferation for decades. They have tried to warn President Trump about the consequences of his actions. But Trump has ignored them, fired them, or relegated them to irrelevance in US policy making.
Trump attacks the pillars of global freedom, relative peace, and prosperity with no concept of what he might build in their place. He promises a return to a pre-World War order in which the United States forges a path alone with no allies other than dictators with whom he can negotiate arrangements of convenience.
Rational people must seek to contain and end Trump’s rule. But the people whose voices are most needed at this dark hour are those of principled Republicans. If the Republican Party retains control of both houses of Congress this November, Trump’s transformation of the Grand Old Party will be complete and the institutional checks on his dangerous behavior will further weaken. Now is the time to speak to friends and colleagues about your concerns. And no matter your distaste, vote Democrat this November or don’t vote at all.
We have plenty of evidence that Trump's risk-taking historically has not been well-guided. He has repeatedly associated himself with extremely ethically compromised characters in his bankrupted branding initiatives, his political campaign, and his real estate enterprise. It’s highly unlikely Trump’s impulsive decision-making has provided good returns when adjusted for risk. Remove the billion-dollar subsidy Trump gained through his tax loss carryforward and his wealth would be far, far lower than popularly imagined.
Now consider what Trump is risking with his all-chips-on-the-table, do-whatever-is-best-for-Donald-Trump approach to decision-making:
1) A rules-based international trading system in which countries do not arbitrarily create trade wars with other countries
2) The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, which has safeguarded democracy in our country and others
3) A rules-based international political order in which major powers do not invade other countries and seize their territory
4) The global nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime
Trump's cavalier risks with the institutions and norms slowing the spread of nuclear weapons should alarm us all. As my old boss at Los Alamos used to say, the more countries with nuclear guns pointed at each other, the more likely someone is going shoot one off like a drunken cowboy. When that happens, all bets are off. Economic and political chaos are highly likely to follow along with huge population displacements.
During his run up to the Korean negotiation Trump made ill-informed statements that most likely encouraged both South Korea and Japan to begin developing their own nuclear weapons. When Trump called off our joint military exercises with South Korea, in which our military demonstrated its commitment to fighting with South Korea, he broke with Seoul with no prior consultation. Do not believe any military or intelligence analyst who claims the South Korean and Japanese security and intelligence communities did not immediately begin reassessing their nuclear postures following the summit. And Taiwan cannot afford to ignore what it's neighbors are doing.
Trump is an armchair nuclear weapons expert on par with your drunk Uncle Earnie at Thanksgiving hell. He's got the keys to the bus we are all in and is careening down the road out of control.
The Trump Administration has admitted zero substantive progress on North Korean denuclearization. There is no clearly-specified commitment by North Korea to eliminate its weapons or weapons programs. With his European, Mexican, Canadian trade wars, Trump has lost his maximum economic sanctions for good. He has significantly increased the odds of an east Asian nuclear weapons arms race.
And at the same time he is taking stupid risks with North Korea he is acting to dismantle the Iran Nuclear deal with no successor policy defined. People familiar with nuclear weapons proliferation know there are remarkable tools available to provide true checks on Iran's ambitions. Locks that are extraordinarily difficult to break. Sensors which detect minute quantities of radioactive isotopes created during uranium enrichment. Safeguards which dramatically increase the odds of detecting any Iranian cheating. There's no evidence Trump weighed the strengths of the safeguards put in place by the agreement against the risk that Iran would resume unfettered nuclear weapons development in the absence of the safeguards.
Iran will look at Trump's actions towards North Korea and draw one conclusion: it is vital to own nuclear weapons to protect yourself from a militaristic, anti-Muslim, erratic man.
North Korea will look at Trump's weakness and consider the risks of exporting nuclear technology to Iran in exchange for cash.
As President, Trump is not gambling with casinos, steaks, or Chinese-made neckties. He is risking the pillars upon which the United States and the world have enjoyed peace and growing prosperity in the 70 years following the horrors of two World Wars. Wise people built these pillars as safeguards against human barbarism. Smart people have studied the logic and game theory of nuclear weapons proliferation for decades. They have tried to warn President Trump about the consequences of his actions. But Trump has ignored them, fired them, or relegated them to irrelevance in US policy making.
Trump attacks the pillars of global freedom, relative peace, and prosperity with no concept of what he might build in their place. He promises a return to a pre-World War order in which the United States forges a path alone with no allies other than dictators with whom he can negotiate arrangements of convenience.
Rational people must seek to contain and end Trump’s rule. But the people whose voices are most needed at this dark hour are those of principled Republicans. If the Republican Party retains control of both houses of Congress this November, Trump’s transformation of the Grand Old Party will be complete and the institutional checks on his dangerous behavior will further weaken. Now is the time to speak to friends and colleagues about your concerns. And no matter your distaste, vote Democrat this November or don’t vote at all.
